Chelsea 2-0 Man United: Our Draw No Bet Prediction Result
Our Chelsea Draw No Bet pick at estimated odds of 1.47 won after a 2-0 home win over Manchester United. Here is what the data showed and how the match played out.
Chelsea beat Manchester United 2-0 in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October, and our pre-match pick, Chelsea Draw No Bet at estimated odds of 1.47, was a winner. We rated it Medium confidence.
Not every pick wins, and this one is no proof of anything beyond a single match. Here is what the numbers showed beforehand, and how the result fits with them.
What our Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction said
Before kick-off we backed Chelsea on Draw No Bet, which means the stake is returned if the match ends level. The estimated odds were 1.47 and our confidence was Medium.
The case rested on three things: Chelsea's home form, United's poor run and the length of United's injury list. The market also rated Chelsea as clear favourites, which matched what our analysis found.
Chelsea's home form and United's away problems
Chelsea had scored 2.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, with recent wins including 5-1 over Bournemouth and 2-0 at Everton. Palmer was due back from his League Cup suspension.
United arrived on a league run of LLDLD, with one win in their last eight in all competitions. They were scoring just 1.0 goals per game on the road and had yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Sesko, Shaw, Dorgu and Ugarte were out, with Fernandes, Mainoo and Rashford doubts.
Why we chose Draw No Bet and Medium confidence
Chelsea had their own problems. They were without Joao Pedro, Reece James and first-choice keeper Emiliano Martinez, had lost 0-2 to Tottenham and 0-3 at Brentford recently, and were conceding 2.0 per game at home. That is why we chose Draw No Bet, which covers the draw, and kept confidence at Medium rather than High.
The 2-0 final score, with United failing to score, went the way the form and market pointed. We would still treat it as one result among many. A defensive record like Chelsea's always left room for a United goal, and the outcome could have been different.
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