FC Porto vs Napoli Prediction and Preview: Champions League

FC Porto form and league phase position

Porto have won three and lost two of their last five games in all competitions, most recently beating Estoril 4-0 in the Primeira Liga. Their European record is the worry. They have no points from three league phase games, with a goal difference of minus four, after defeats to Manchester City, Real Betis and PSV Eindhoven.

At home in this competition they have not yet scored, and they have conceded 1.5 goals a game. Domestically the picture is far healthier, and Goal.com reports them unbeaten in Liga Portugal this season, including a 3-1 win over Benfica. Over the last 12 months in the competitions we track, Porto have won 22 of 28 home games, scoring 1.96 and conceding 0.50 per game.

Napoli team news and injury problems

Napoli's absence list is long. UEFA's predicted line-ups name Badiashile, Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, Neres, Olivera, Alisson Santos and Spinazzola as out, with De Bruyne, Højlund and Milinković-Savić doubtful. Goal.com calls injuries the biggest factor in their season, and the defensive losses stand out.

Napoli have won two and lost two of their last five, with a draw in between, including a 4-3 Champions League win over Bodø/Glimt and a 0-2 defeat at Juventus. They have taken three points from three league phase games, and the press describes their play-off qualification as at risk. They also travel to Lazio in Serie A on Sunday, which could influence how Napoli use their squad here.

Key stats and what to watch

No recent head-to-head fixtures were found, so this comes down to current form and fitness. Napoli have conceded 3.0 goals a game away from home in this competition so far, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Over the last 12 months their away record reads nine wins, five draws and nine defeats, with 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.

Across the competition as a whole, matches over the last 12 months have averaged 3.30 goals, and 61% have gone over 2.5. Porto have scored in nearly all of their games over the same period, but they have failed to score in two of their three this term. Line-ups are not yet published, so treat all team news as provisional until about 30 minutes before kick-off, and remember that no statistic removes the risk from betting.

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