- 86'HSubstitution - Joe Gelhardt · for Mohamed Belloumi
- 86'HSubstitution - Robinio Vaz · for Oliver McBurnie
- 78'ASubstitution - El Hadji Malick Diouf · for Keane Lewis-Potter
- 78'ASubstitution - Callum Wilson · for Dango Ouattara
- 72'HSubstitution - Hidemasa Morita · for Tim Iroegbunam
- 65'HSubstitution - Mohamed Ali Cho · for Ryan Giles
- 65'HSubstitution - Brooke Norton-Cuffy · for Lewie Coyle
- 63'AGoal - Dango Ouattara · Assist: Igor Thiago
- 62'ASubstitution - Jaidon Anthony · for Kevin Schade
- 62'ASubstitution - Mikkel Damsgaard · for Aaron Hickey
- 24'HGoal - Oliver McBurnie · Penalty
- 23'AYellow card - Aaron Hickey
- 2
- Shots on target
- 6
- 12
- Shots
- 14
- 5
- Corners
- 6
- 42
- Possession %
- 58
Under 3.5 goals gets a cautious lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.50
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Hull have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded across three unbeaten home league games. Brentford have drawn all three away league fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals both scored and conceded, making under 3.5 goals at 1.50 a plausible option.
Three of each team's last five matches finished below four goals, including Hull's latest 0-1 defeat and Brentford's 1-2 loss. However, both sides also recorded two 2-2 draws in those sequences, so the recent scoring evidence is mixed.
The estimated 69% chance supports Medium confidence and narrowly exceeds the price's 66.7% break-even threshold. Hull's relatively low-scoring home figures support that assessment, but the small sample, recent four-goal draws and unconfirmed line-ups prevent a High rating.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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