Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
Fenerbahce vs Liverpool: hosts lean to find the net against a reshuffled Liverpool back line
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceTeam GoalsFenerbahçe Over 0.5 Goals@ 1.40Suggested stake: 2 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Liverpool arrive 3rd in the league phase with 9 points and a +5 goal difference from three wins, though they lost 1-0 at Arsenal on 1 November. Fenerbahce sit 31st on 2 points (GD -6, form DLDWD), but both of their home games have been draws, and the market rates Liverpool as clear favourites.
Over the last 12 months Fenerbahce have scored in roughly three of every four home games (1.00 per game), while Liverpool have conceded 1.52 per game away. Liverpool are without both regular right-backs, Bradley and Frimpong, as well as Ekitike and Leoni. Fenerbahce miss Asensio, Ake and defender Oppong, and interim coach Dirk Kuyt takes his first Champions League game in charge.
The sharp market and our model both make a Fenerbahce goal more likely than not, so this is a Medium lean. It is not High because Asensio's absence and a possibly cautious interim set-up raise the blank risk, and line-ups are still provisional. It is not lower because Liverpool's away concession rate and their missing full-backs give the home side genuine routes to goal.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (279 matches): 3.30 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 61%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.6 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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