Anaitasuna vs Alaves

Alaves are 10th in La Liga on 12 points from 11 games, but their form is poor (LDLLD, including a 1-6 loss at Barcelona). Their output is modest at about 1.3 goals per game across the last 16 matches and roughly 0.9 per game away, with shots on target at about 4.0 away. Anaitasuna come from the fourth tier and beat Tedeon 5-0 and 5-2 in this competition, though their league form is shaky.

The market rates Alaves as overwhelming favourites, so most of the action should be at the Anaitasuna end, but that does not translate into Alaves scoring heavily. Alaves have not shown a high-scoring profile and a heavy rotation for a first-round tie would likely trim their attacking threat further. Anaitasuna conceded two in an away game in this competition, so Alaves should find chances, but five or more goals would need an unusual mismatch.

Alaves Under 4.5 Goals sits at High confidence because their scoring averages, the model view and their away shot profile all point well below five goals, and nothing in the press brief works against it. It is not rated higher because line-ups are unpublished, rotation is possible and a freak mismatch scoreline can always happen. It is not lower because even a comfortable win would typically leave Alaves on three or four goals.