- 102'ASubstitution - Geovany Quenda · for Pedro Neto
- 92'ASubstitution - Danny Welbeck · for João Pedro
- 92'ASubstitution - Marco Palestra · for Jorrel Hato
- 92'ASubstitution - Romeo Lavia · for Moises Caicedo
- 90'AGoal - Pedro Neto
- 89'HYellow card - Christian Nørgaard
- 85'HSubstitution - Christian Nørgaard · for Harrison Armstrong
- 85'HSubstitution - Brennan Johnson · for Jack Grealish
- 75'ASubstitution - Mike Penders · for Emiliano Martínez
- 65'AYellow card - Cole Palmer
- 55'HSubstitution - Tyrique George · for Ainsley Maitland-Niles
- 46'AGoal - Pedro Neto
- 34'AYellow card - Morgan Rogers
- 34'HYellow card - James Tarkowski
- 32'AYellow card - Josh Acheampong
- 27'AYellow card - Pedro Neto
- 23'HYellow card - Harrison Armstrong
- 5
- Shots on target
- 7
- 6
- Shots
- 18
- 5
- Corners
- 7
- 47
- Possession %
- 53
Under 3.5 goals offers a narrow edge at Everton
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.50
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Everton have conceded 0.7 goals per home league game, while Chelsea have scored 1.3 per away game. Everton's recent 1-0 wins over Ipswich and Wolves and 0-0 draw at Tottenham support a lean towards Under 3.5 goals.
Four of the five supplied meetings finished below 3.5 goals, including Everton's 3-0 home victory in March. At 1.50, the selection requires roughly a 67% success rate; Everton's defensive figures suggest a modest edge over that threshold.
Chelsea's recent 5-1 and 6-3 wins, alongside Everton's two recent 2-2 draws, make Medium confidence appropriate rather than High. Everton's defensive record provides enough support to avoid Low, but the attacking counterevidence and unpublished line-ups limit conviction.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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