Manchester United vs Bournemouth
0 - 3
- 87'ASubstitution - Bafodé Diakité · for Adam Smith
- 87'ASubstitution - Eli Junior Kroupi · for Evanilson
- 87'ASubstitution - Amine Adli · for Marcus Tavernier
- 78'HSubstitution - Shea Lacey · for Amad Diallo
- 75'ASubstitution - Ryan Christie · for Lewis Cook
- 72'HSubstitution - Joshua Zirkzee · for Carlos Baleba
- 71'AGoal - Evanilson · Assist: Lewis Cook
- 65'HSubstitution - Lisandro Martínez · for Ayden Heaven
- 63'ASubstitution - Ben Gannon-Doak · for Justin Kluivert
- 48'HYellow card - Harry Maguire
- 46'HSubstitution - Matheus Cunha · for Youri Tielemans
- 43'AGoal - Marcus Tavernier · Assist: Adrien Truffert
- 40'HYellow card - Youri Tielemans
- 38'AGoal - Rayan · Assist: Justin Kluivert
- 37'HYellow card - Ayden Heaven
- 27'AYellow card - Tyler Adams
- 22'HYellow card - Andrey Santos
- 5
- Shots on target
- 4
- 17
- Shots
- 10
- 5
- Corners
- 4
- 63
- Possession %
- 37
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- High confidenceWonTotal GoalsOver 1.5 Goals@ 1.20
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Manchester United average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Bournemouth average 1.3 scored and 3.0 conceded away. United have yet to record a league clean sheet, supporting a lean towards at least two goals rather than either match winner.
United's five listed recent results all contained at least two goals, as did four of Bournemouth's five. However, United's three recent league draws finished 1-1, making over 1.5 more defensible than over 2.5; provisional attacking absences also warrant caution.
Over 1.5 goals at 1.20 requires an 83.3% success rate to break even, against our estimate of 85%. High confidence reflects agreement between venue scoring rates and recent results, although the small season sample and unsettled team news keep the estimate close to the market.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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