- 87'AGoal - Tani Oluwaseyi · Assist: Ayoze Pérez
- 81'HSubstitution - James McConnell · for Treymaurice Nyoni
- 78'ASubstitution - Gerard Moreno · for Santi Comesaña
- 74'HSubstitution - Bradley Barcola · for Rio Ngumoha
- 74'HSubstitution - Joe Gomez · for Jérémy Jacquet
- 68'HGoal - Florian Wirtz · Assist: Cody Gakpo
- 66'HSubstitution - Alexander Isak · for Lewis Koumas
- 65'HGoal - Alexis Mac Allister · Assist: Rio Ngumoha
- 60'ASubstitution - Alex Freeman · for Tajon Buchanan
- 60'ASubstitution - Ayoze Pérez · for Georges Mikautadze
- 54'ASubstitution - Juan Foyth · for Alberto Moleiro
- 47'HGoal - Ronald Araujo · Assist: Rio Ngumoha
- 45'HSubstitution - Florian Wirtz · for Ronald Araujo
- 45'ASubstitution - Tani Oluwaseyi · for Nathan-Dylan Saliba
- 41'AYellow card - Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
- 36'HGoal - Alexis Mac Allister · Assist: Konstantinos Tsimikas
- 29'AGoal - Sergi Cardona Bermúdez · Assist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba
- 27'AYellow card - Alberto Moleiro
- 4'AGoal - Georges Mikautadze
- 7
- Shots on target
- 5
- 22
- Shots
- 14
- 7
- Corners
- 2
- 53
- Possession %
- 47
Over 2.5 goals gets a cautious lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsOver 2.5 Goals@ 1.47
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Three of Liverpool's last five matches and three of Villarreal's last five produced over 2.5 goals. Liverpool's recent results include a 6-3 win at LASK, while Villarreal have recorded three 3-1 victories in that stretch.
Both sides have scored and conceded in each of their two Champions League matches this season. Liverpool's supplied home averages of 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, alongside Villarreal's away figures of 2.0 and 3.0, support the goals lean, although those venue samples contain just one match each.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 needs a 66.7% success rate, narrowly below the 68% estimate here. Medium confidence reflects the supporting scoring evidence, tempered by Villarreal's latest 0-0, provisional team news and the small competition sample.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (279 matches): 3.30 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 61%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.6 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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