- 91'HYellow card - Morgan Rogers
- 89'ASubstitution - Dejan Kulusevski · for Mohammed Kudus
- 89'ASubstitution - Ben Davies · for Mathys Tel
- 88'HSubstitution - Danny Welbeck · for Pedro Neto
- 87'AGoal - Mathys Tel
- 80'HRed card - Cole Palmer
- 79'HYellow card - Pedro Neto
- 77'AGoal - Mike Penders · Own goal
- 72'AYellow card - Mateus Fernandes
- 72'HSubstitution - Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves · for Geovany Quenda
- 72'AYellow card - Roberto De Zerbi
- 71'AYellow card - Micky van de Ven
- 71'HYellow card - Cole Palmer
- 67'AYellow card - Conor Gallagher
- 65'HSubstitution - Marco Palestra · for Jorrel Hato
- 65'ASubstitution - Dominic Solanke · for Omar Marmoush
- 65'ASubstitution - Pedro Porro · for Andrew Robertson
- 51'ASubstitution - Conor Gallagher · for James Maddison
- 4
- Shots on target
- 4
- 7
- Shots
- 15
- 4
- Corners
- 6
- 31
- Possession %
- 69
Chelsea or draw looks the strongest option
Our pick
odds are estimates- High confidenceLostDouble ChanceChelsea or Draw@ 1.29
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Chelsea sit fourth with 13 points and a W2-D1-L0 home record, while 16th-placed Tottenham have six points and are W0-D2-L1 away. Those venue records favour Chelsea or Draw at 1.23 over relying on a home victory.
Tottenham average just 0.3 away league goals and have failed to score in four of seven league matches. Chelsea followed a 5-1 win over Bournemouth with a 2-0 victory at Everton, although Spurs' latest 3-1 win over Coventry provides a counterweight.
High confidence reflects an estimated 82% probability, supported independently by Chelsea's unbeaten home record and Tottenham's limited away scoring. The estimate stays close to the price's break-even threshold because Chelsea concede 2.0 goals per home league match and line-ups remain unconfirmed.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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