- 87'ASubstitution - Hugo Larsson · for Timothy Castagne
- 87'ASubstitution - Rodrigo Muniz · for Gonzalo García
- 87'HSubstitution - Alejandro Garnacho · for John McGinn
- 79'HSubstitution - Ross Barkley · for Boubacar Kamara
- 79'ASubstitution - Cesar Palacios Perez · for Josh King
- 79'ASubstitution - Kenny Tete · for Oscar Bobb
- 77'AYellow card - Tom Cairney
- 76'HYellow card - Matty Cash
- 75'ASubstitution - Tom Cairney · for Alex Iwobi
- 66'HSubstitution - João Gomes · for Johan Manzambi
- 66'HSubstitution - Emiliano Buendía · for Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
- 66'HSubstitution - Ibrahim Mbaye · for Leon Goretzka
- 64'AGoal - Zion Suzuki · Own goal
- 49'AYellow card - Calvin Bassey
- 39'HGoal - Nicolas Jackson · Assist: Johan Manzambi
- 30'AYellow card - David Affengruber
- 3
- Shots on target
- 5
- 16
- Shots
- 14
- 7
- Corners
- 7
- 45
- Possession %
- 55
Aston Villa vs Fulham: depleted Villa attack points to a contained scoreline
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.41
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
The market rates Aston Villa as clear favourites at Villa Park, with Fulham the outsiders, but Fulham arrive with mixed form (LWWLD over their last five). There is no recent head-to-head data to tip the balance either way.
Villa's attack looks thinner than usual, with Marcus Rashford reported out long term and Johan Manzambi flagged with a fitness setback. Villa are also without Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka. Fulham lose Sessegnon to suspension, with Affengruber and Smith Rowe questionable, which further limits both sides' options.
The goals market sits only slightly above a two-and-a-half-goal expectation, so four or more goals needs the game to break open well beyond the norm. This is Medium rather than High because Villa's defensive absences and a market that leans towards both teams scoring leave a real path to a 3-1 or 2-2. It is not Low because the sharp market and the attacking absences both point the same way.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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