- 90'AGoal - Antonio Rüdiger · Assist: Arda Güler
- 89'HYellow card - Lorenzo Pellegrini
- 85'AGoal - Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa · Assist: Arda Güler
- 83'AGoal - Carlos Espí
- 81'HSubstitution - Konstantinos Koulierakis · for Mario Hermoso
- 78'ASubstitution - Carlos Espí · for Yan Diomande
- 78'ASubstitution - Álvaro Fernández Carreras · for Marc Cucurella
- 70'ASubstitution - Bernardo Silva · for Aurelien Tchouameni
- 69'HYellow card - Wesley Vinícius França Lima
- 63'HSubstitution - Lorenzo Pellegrini · for Matias Soule
- 63'HSubstitution - Leonardo Balerdi · for Gianluca Mancini
- 60'HYellow card - Gianluca Mancini
- 59'ASubstitution - Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa · for Vinícius
- 59'ASubstitution - Arda Güler · for Denzel Dumfries
- 57'HGoal - Donyell Malen · Assist: Matias Soule
- 51'HGoal - Donyell Malen · Assist: Rodrigo Mora
- 45'HSubstitution - Rodrigo Mora · for Paulo Dybala
- 25'AGoal - Kylian Mbappé · Assist: Yan Diomande
- 20'HGoal - Marten de Roon · Assist: Matias Soule
- 17'HSubstitution - Niccolò Pisilli · for Manu Koné
- 7
- Shots on target
- 8
- 14
- Shots
- 16
- 5
- Corners
- 9
- 54
- Possession %
- 46
Roma handicap offers the stronger lean, with under 3.5 also supported
Our picks (2)
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonHandicapAS Roma +1.5@ 1.35
- Medium confidenceLostTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.73
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Roma are unbeaten in five matches, including a 2-2 draw with Inter and a 2-1 win over Atalanta. Madrid have won four of five, but three of those victories were by one goal, supporting Roma +1.5 at 1.38 rather than a stronger result prediction.
Seven of the teams' ten combined recent matches finished under 3.5 goals, including Roma's latest 0-0 draw at Como and Madrid's 1-0 win over Villarreal. Under 3.5 at 1.80 offers a reasonable secondary lean, although Madrid's recent 3-2 and 4-1 victories highlight the risk.
Roma's reported absences of Svilar and Cristante weaken the handicap case, while Madrid's missing defenders add uncertainty to the goals selection. The main pick earns Medium confidence: recent results support the modest margin protection, but provisional team news prevents a High rating.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (279 matches): 3.30 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 61%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.6 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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