- 85'HSubstitution - Max Dowman · for Eberechi Eze
- 82'ASubstitution - Soriba Diaoune · for Dilane Bakwa
- 81'AYellow card - Maxima Goffi
- 78'ASubstitution - Calvin Verdonk · for Romain Perraud
- 78'ASubstitution - Olivier Giroud · for Ayase Ueda
- 78'HSubstitution - Ben White · for Jurriën Timber
- 72'ASubstitution - Maurits Kjaergaard · for Ngal'ayel Mukau
- 72'ASubstitution - Osame Sahraoui · for Nabil Bentaleb
- 71'HGoal - Bukayo Saka · Assist: Kai Havertz
- 67'HGoal - Eberechi Eze · Assist: Bukayo Saka
- 65'HSubstitution - Kai Havertz · for Viktor Gyökeres
- 65'HSubstitution - Martin Odegaard · for Mikel Merino
- 65'HSubstitution - Bukayo Saka · for Noni Madueke
- 64'HGoal - Jurriën Timber · Assist: Noni Madueke
- 29'HYellow card - Mikel Merino
- 8
- Shots on target
- 0
- 16
- Shots
- 4
- 7
- Corners
- 0
- 58
- Possession %
- 42
Under 3.5 goals offers the strongest lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.67
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 and Napoli 1–0, while Lille’s latest result was a 1–0 win over Le Havre. Eight of the ten supplied recent scorelines stayed below 3.5 goals, supporting that line over the alternative totals.
Under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.57, implying roughly a 64% chance; my assessment is slightly higher at around 68–70%. Arsenal’s 4–2 win at Ipswich and Lille’s 2–3 defeat by Real Betis are the clearest counterexamples, so the edge is modest rather than overwhelming.
Confidence is Medium because both teams’ recent scorelines support the pick, but 1.57 sits outside the High-confidence price guideline. Saliba’s listed absence and unpublished line-ups add defensive uncertainty, while the shared scoring pattern provides enough support to avoid a Low rating.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (279 matches): 3.30 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 61%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.6 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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