How to Judge a Tipster or Prediction Service
Learn how to assess a tipster’s timing, record and sample size, and spot warning signs that a prediction history may not be trustworthy.
A confident prediction is easy to publish. Assessing whether a tipster or service is reliable takes more care: check when picks were shared, whether every result is recorded and whether the history is large enough to be informative.
No record can guarantee future results. Use the checks below to judge the quality of the evidence, rather than relying on bold claims or a short run of winners.
Check when predictions are published
A pick should be visible before the event starts, with a clear timestamp and enough detail to identify the selection. The sport, event, market and odds matter: “Team A to win” is not the same as a specific market at a particular price.
Look for a record that can be checked against the original post, not just a later list of winners. If the service says a prediction was published in advance, there should be a way to verify that it was available at the time. This is important because prices and markets can change before an event begins.
Look for a complete, verifiable record
A useful record includes every settled pick, not only successful ones. It should show the selection, the odds quoted when it was published and the outcome, while explaining how void or abandoned events are treated. Consistent reporting makes it easier to assess the record fairly.
Be cautious if losing picks disappear, past results are edited without explanation or the service highlights wins while leaving the full history hard to find. Screenshots of selected wins are weak evidence on their own: they may omit losses or fail to show when a pick was made.
Claims about profit also need context. Returns depend on the odds and the staking method, so a win rate alone does not tell you whether a record was profitable. Check that the service explains its calculations and applies the same method throughout.
Consider sample size and warning signs
A handful of settled picks is not enough to establish a lasting pattern. Results can vary by chance, so a brief winning run may say little about how a service performs over time. There is no single number that proves a record is reliable; look for a substantial, ongoing history that can be reviewed in full.
For example, imagine a tipster shows ten picks but reports only the seven that won. The missing results make the record incomplete, even if those seven wins are genuine. A straightforward history should account for all ten and make the outcomes easy to check.
Treat promises of guaranteed returns, pressure to subscribe quickly and claims that cannot be independently checked as warning signs. Also ask whether the service’s record covers the same kinds of picks it currently promotes. Betting involves risk, and past results do not ensure future performance.
How SharpTips presents its predictions
SharpTips gives subscribers access to the full prediction with all our picks, estimated odds and analysis. You can also review our public track record and read three free predictions a day; use the information to assess our approach and make your own decisions.
This content expresses statistical probability and opinion, not certainty. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
