- 85'ASubstitution - Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa · for Yan Diomande
- 82'HSubstitution - André Almeida · for Iván Martín
- 82'HSubstitution - Giorgi Guliashvili · for Iñigo Vicente
- 77'ASubstitution - Eduardo Camavinga · for Bernardo Silva
- 67'ASubstitution - Brahim Díaz · for Arda Güler
- 61'HSubstitution - Pablo García · for Yassir Zabiri
- 60'HSubstitution - Íñigo Sáinz-Maza · for Pablo Ramon Parra
- 46'HYellow card - Iker Luque
- 36'AGoal - Yan Diomande
- 34'HYellow card - Jeanuël Belocian
- 29'HSubstitution - Pedro Felipe · for Alvaro Mantilla
- 21'AGoal - Jude Bellingham · Assist: Arda Güler
- 11'AGoal - Kylian Mbappé · Penalty
- 1
- Shots on target
- 7
- 9
- Shots
- 21
- 3
- Corners
- 6
- 46
- Possession %
- 54
Racing's unbroken home scoring run against a leaky Madrid makes a home goal the lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceLostTeam GoalsRacing Santander Over 0.5 Goals@ 1.53Suggested stake: 1 unit · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Racing sit 13th on 11 points but are unbeaten at home (W3 D2 L0). They average 2.2 goals per home game and have found the net in every home league match, including 2-1 wins over Espanyol and Alaves and a 2-2 with Valencia. Top scorer Zabiri (8 goals) is available, though defender Salinas is suspended and Eriksson is injured.
Real Madrid are third on 24 points and have won five straight, and the market rates them as clear favourites. Their defence is far less convincing: they conceded in 9 of their last 10, average 1.4 goals against away from home, and saw both teams score in 5 of their last 7 away games. They are also without Vinicius, Rodrygo, Asencio and Mendy, and Valverde and Guler are doubtful.
Racing to score carries Medium confidence because two independent strands agree: Racing's home scoring record and Madrid's habit of conceding, with our model also leaning slightly above the price. It is not High because the sharp market is a little more cautious than our read, line-ups are unconfirmed, and Courtois's reported return could tighten Madrid. It is not Low because Racing have scored in every home league game and Madrid have conceded in 9 of their last 10.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (379 matches): 2.79 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 52%, both teams scored in 57%, 9.6 corners, 4.8 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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