- 87'ASubstitution - D. Kelly · for Jenson Metcalfe
- 82'HGoal - Thomas Waddingham
- 76'ASubstitution - Alfie Doughty · for Luke Cundle
- 75'ASubstitution - Ryan Leonard · for Tristan Crama
- 71'HYellow card - Marko Milovanović
- 71'HSubstitution - Thomas Waddingham · for Marko Milovanović
- 68'ASubstitution - Mihailo·Ivanovic · for Lyndon Dykes
- 68'ASubstitution - Romain Esse · for Kyrell Lisbie
- 62'HSubstitution - Tyrese Shade · for Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
- 61'HSubstitution - Ebou Adams · for Adrian Segecic
- 45'AYellow card - Jake Cooper
- 24'AYellow card - Tristan Crama
- 16'HGoal - Lyndon Dykes · Own goal
- 6'AGoal - Jenson Metcalfe
- 2
- Shots on target
- 1
- 7
- Shots
- 10
- 5
- Corners
- 5
- 48
- Possession %
- 52
Two or more goals narrowly preferred at Portsmouth
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsOver 1.5 Goals@ 1.32
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Portsmouth average 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Millwall average 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded away. Those venue-specific rates favour over 1.5 goals more convincingly than either side in the result markets.
Six of the ten listed recent results produced at least two goals, although four finished 1-0 or 0-1. Bishop and Murphy are listed unavailable for Portsmouth, alongside Coburn and Ivanovic for Millwall, so provisional attacking absences temper the scoring outlook.
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32 is assessed at 77%, giving Medium confidence and narrowly exceeding the price's 75.8% break-even threshold. The venue scoring figures support publication, but the recent low-scoring results and unresolved team news prevent a higher rating.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (558 matches): 2.71 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 54%, both teams scored in 59%, 10.5 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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