- 90'HSubstitution - Dan Burn · for Joelinton
- 86'HYellow card - Malick Thiaw
- 78'HYellow card - William Osula
- 77'ASubstitution - Pau Torres · for Aaron Wan-Bissaka
- 72'ASubstitution - Ibrahim Mbaye · for Johan Manzambi
- 72'ASubstitution - Ross Barkley · for João Gomes
- 72'ASubstitution - Leon Goretzka · for Emiliano Buendía
- 56'HSubstitution - William Osula · for Joe Willock
- 56'HSubstitution - Bazoumana Touré · for Matias Fernandez-Pardo
- 55'HYellow card - Yoane Wissa
- 53'HYellow card - Nico González
- 45'ASubstitution - John McGinn · for Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
- 36'AGoal - Johan Manzambi · Assist: João Gomes
- 28'AYellow card - Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
- 25'AYellow card - João Gomes
- 18'HYellow card - Joelinton
- 18'HYellow card - Sven Botman
- 1
- Shots on target
- 3
- 16
- Shots
- 15
- 4
- Corners
- 5
- 49
- Possession %
- 51
Scoring trends favour over 2.5 goals at Newcastle
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceLostTotal GoalsOver 2.5 Goals@ 1.57
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Newcastle average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded at home, while Villa average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded away. Those venue-specific rates support over 2.5 goals at 1.62, which implies roughly a 62% chance.
Four of Newcastle's last five listed matches produced at least three goals, including the 2–1 home win over Hull and 2–2 draw with Bournemouth. Villa's latest league results were 2–2 against Brentford and 3–2 at Tottenham, adding support beyond Newcastle's heavy away defeats.
Villa have failed to score in three of six league games, and Newcastle's four-goal concessions at Coventry and Leeds both came away. Confidence is Medium: the scoring rates and recent results suggest a modest price edge, but the small sample, unpublished line-ups and 1.62 price keep it below High.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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