Los Angeles Clippers vs Miami Heat

The Clippers are on a five-game losing run (LLLLL) and sit 13th in the West at 1-6 on the reported record, with 757 points scored and 808 conceded. They are missing Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, Yanic Konan Niederhauser and Jordan Miller, with Rui Hachimura and Derrick Jones Jr. doubtful, so their depth looks thin; reports disagree on some statuses and records, so the official report is worth checking.

Miami are 10th in the East at 2-5 on the reported record with a mixed LWWLL last five, scoring about 120 points a game away and conceding about 122. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myron Gardner are game-time decisions, which is the main uncertainty, but the sharp market still rates the Heat as the clear favourite, and handicap lines around the key number of 3.5 are close to a coin flip on the favourite's side, which leaves the Heat +3.5 cushion looking comfortable.

Heat +3.5 is the main pick because the Heat only lose it if beaten by four or more, which looks less likely than a straight Heat win given the Clippers' injuries and current slide. It sits at High rather than lower because the market, the Clippers' absences and their losing run all point the same way, but not higher because Giannis's status is unresolved, Miami's defence is leaky and the home-side sample is small.