- 93'AYellow card - David Raya
- 88'ASubstitution - Mikel Merino · for Martin Odegaard
- 84'ASubstitution - Viktor Gyökeres · for Kai Havertz
- 84'ASubstitution - Piero Hincapié · for Christos Tzolis
- 81'HSubstitution - Lewis Koumas · for Florian Wirtz
- 81'HSubstitution - Víctor Muñoz · for Ronald Araujo
- 81'HSubstitution - Konstantinos Tsimikas · for Milos Kerkez
- 80'HYellow card - Alexis Mac Allister
- 80'AYellow card - Jurriën Timber
- 72'AYellow card - Myles Lewis-Skelly
- 67'HYellow card - Milos Kerkez
- 67'HSubstitution - Rio Ngumoha · for Cody Gakpo
- 62'ASubstitution - Myles Lewis-Skelly · for Bruno Guimarães
- 59'HSubstitution - Dominik Szoboszlai · for Treymaurice Nyoni
- 55'AYellow card - Noni Madueke
- 47'HYellow card - Bradley Barcola
- 16'AGoal - Kai Havertz · Assist: Declan Rice
- 0
- Shots on target
- 3
- 17
- Shots
- 10
- 7
- Corners
- 4
- 56
- Possession %
- 44
Liverpool vs Arsenal: title-race heavyweights lean towards a controlled contest
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.40Suggested stake: 3 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Arsenal arrive top on 21 points with a +8 goal difference, and Liverpool sit fourth on 15 points (+3). The market rates Arsenal as slight favourites in a fairly even contest. Arsenal concede just 0.8 per game away this season with 5 clean sheets in 8, while Liverpool have averaged only 1.0 goal per home league game.
Liverpool's last five Premier League outings (2-0, 2-1, 0-3, 1-0, 0-0) all finished with three goals or fewer. Their high-scoring games came in Europe (4-3, 6-3). Both attacks are weakened: Arsenal are without Saka and the suspended Dowman, Liverpool lack Ekitike and Frimpong, and Szoboszlai and Wirtz are late fitness calls.
Under 3.5 goals is rated Medium because the sharp market and our model both put it at 70% or higher and the league form supports it. It stops short of High because Saliba's absence weakens Arsenal's back line, Liverpool have conceded three goals three times in recent weeks, and line-ups are still provisional. It is a lean towards a tight game, not a promise.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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