- 87'HYellow card - E. Di Francesco
- 86'ASubstitution - Lorenzo Colombo · for Milutin Osmajić
- 86'ASubstitution - Franz-Ethan Meichtry · for Junior Messias
- 80'ASubstitution - Djibril Sow · for Hamed Junior Traorè
- 75'HSubstitution - Omri Gandelman · for Youssef Maleh
- 75'HSubstitution - Ali Dembélé · for Nikola Stulic
- 75'HSubstitution - Paco Esteban · for Konan N'Dri
- 70'HYellow card - Jamil Siebert
- 62'AYellow card - Hamed Junior Traorè
- 60'ASubstitution - Kingsley Ehizibue · for Samuel Wiafe
- 60'ASubstitution - Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira · for Stephan El Shaarawy
- 59'HYellow card - Mohamed Kaba
- 59'HSubstitution - Amar Fatah · for Joel Almada Monteiro
- 56'HSubstitution - Mohamed Kaba · for Olaf Gorter
- 40'HGoal - Youssef Maleh
- 28'AGoal - Junior Messias · Assist: Stephan El Shaarawy
- 11'AGoal - Milutin Osmajić · Assist: Junior Messias
- 7
- Shots on target
- 3
- 18
- Shots
- 13
- 6
- Corners
- 3
- 53
- Possession %
- 47
Depleted Lecce attack leans toward a low Lecce goal tally against Genoa
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTeam GoalsLecce Under 1.5 Goals@ 1.33Suggested stake: 2 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Lecce sit 14th on 9 points with a -9 goal difference and have lost four of their last five, including 1-5 at Frosinone and 0-2 at home to Juventus. They average 1.0 goals per home game this season and 0.78 at home over the last 12 months, failing to score in half of those games. Only the 3-2 against Monza has brought them two or more goals at home in the league this term.
The squad is thin in midfield and attack, with Coulibaly, Berisha, Ilic and Pierotti listed as out, Geubbels a doubt and defender Gaspar suspended. Genoa, 13th on 10 points, have conceded 1.2 per game across their last five away matches and 1.28 per away game over 12 months. The market rates Genoa slightly ahead of Lecce, which fits a cautious, low-scoring contest for the hosts.
Confidence is Medium rather than High because line-ups are not yet confirmed and Genoa's away defence is merely average, not tight. Lecce have also shown they can score three in a game, as they did at Udinese. It is not Low because the season scoring rate, the 12-month record and the absences all point the same way.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (382 matches): 2.67 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 51%, both teams scored in 48%, 9.0 corners, 3.8 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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