- 90'ASubstitution - Lohann Doucet · for Beni Mukendi
- 90'ASubstitution - Miguel Nogueira · for Gustavo Silva
- 84'HSubstitution - Jose Carlos Natario Ferreira · for Diogo Prioste
- 84'HSubstitution - Weverson · for José Silva
- 76'HSubstitution - Mohamed Kaba · for Walace França
- 76'HSubstitution - Joelson Fernandes · for Tidjany Chabrol Toure
- 76'ASubstitution - Alan de Souza Guimarães · for Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
- 76'HSubstitution - Guilherme Gomes · for Andreas Lausen
- 75'ASubstitution - Alioune Ndoye · for Arnel Jakupović
- 60'AYellow card - Toni Borevković
- 54'HYellow card - Ricardo Esgaio
- 40'HYellow card - Santiago García González
- 1
- Shots on target
- 2
- 10
- Shots
- 11
- 2
- Corners
- 3
- 48
- Possession %
- 52
GIL Vicente to score at home looks a sound lean against a Vitória side losing away
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceLostTeam GoalsGIL Vicente Over 0.5 Goals@ 1.36Suggested stake: 3 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
GIL Vicente sit 7th and have scored 0.8 per game at home this season, while their home shots on target over the last 8 games average 4.6 for and 2.9 against. Vitória SC are 13th with four away defeats from four league games, conceding 2.0 per game on the road. The market rates GIL as slightly more likely to score than not, and our model rates it clearly higher.
The caution is that GIL failed to score in 3 of 9 league games, including a 0-1 home loss to Viseu and a 0-1 loss to Porto. The last two meetings with Vitória ended 0-0 and 1-0 to the visitors, and line-ups are not yet published, so the picture is provisional. Vitória's home defence is tight (0.4 conceded per game), but their away record is much weaker.
GIL scoring has Medium confidence because the market, the model and the home shot profile all lean the same way, but the shutout risk, the cagey head-to-head and the unconfirmed team news hold it from High. The probability is trimmed for provisional line-ups, and this remains a lean rather than a certainty.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (307 matches): 2.69 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 54%, both teams scored in 49%, 9.4 corners, 5.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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