- 91'AYellow card - Stole Dimitrievski
- 88'ASubstitution - Jesús Vázquez · for Arnaut Danjuma
- 88'ASubstitution - Mouctar Diakhaby · for Javi Guerra
- 78'ASubstitution - Daniel Raba Antolín · for Luis Rioja
- 78'ASubstitution - Filip Ugrinic · for Aaron Mayol
- 78'HSubstitution - Grady Diangana · for Javier Morcillo Rodrigálvarez
- 73'AYellow card - Javi Guerra
- 69'AGoal - Umar Sadiq · Assist: Arnaut Danjuma
- 68'HSubstitution - Tete Morente · for Germán Valera
- 68'HSubstitution - Ruben Sanchez Saez · for Buba Sangaré
- 68'HSubstitution - Abiel Alessio Osorio · for Lucas Cepeda
- 62'HYellow card - Facundo Buonanotte
- 61'ASubstitution - Umar Sadiq · for Pablo Maffeo
- 42'HYellow card - Víctor Chust
- 36'HYellow card - Germán Valera
- 24'HSubstitution - Facundo Buonanotte · for Thomas Lemar
- 3
- Shots on target
- 3
- 15
- Shots
- 5
- 7
- Corners
- 2
- 69
- Possession %
- 31
Elche v Valencia: goal-shy Valencia lean towards a quiet attacking afternoon
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTeam GoalsValencia Under 1.5 Goals@ 1.44Suggested stake: 1 unit · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Valencia are 19th on 6 points with a -10 goal difference and score just 0.5 per game at home and 1.0 away this season, failing to score in 5 of 10. In their last 10 they reached two goals only twice, at Racing (2-2) and against Real Sociedad (2-3).
Valencia's absences make it harder: Canos, Diego Lopez and Otorbi are injured, Elliott is suspended, and Sadiq is listed as questionable. Elche concede 2.8 per home game, but mostly against Barcelona (0-5), Real Madrid (2-3) and Real Sociedad (2-3). They held Celta to 0-0 and are unbeaten in five league games.
This is Medium rather than High because our model rates Valencia's chance of scoring twice higher than the sharp market does, reflecting Elche's leaky home record and Aguado's absence. Line-ups are also not yet confirmed. It is not Low because Valencia's season-long scoring numbers and their depleted forward line both point the same way.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (379 matches): 2.79 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 52%, both teams scored in 57%, 9.6 corners, 4.8 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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