- 93'HYellow card - Jaydee Canvot
- 90'ASubstitution - Malick Thiaw · for Amar Dedić
- 85'ASubstitution - Sean Steur · for Joelinton
- 79'HYellow card - Anan Khalaili
- 78'AYellow card - Lewis Hall
- 77'ASubstitution - Anthony Elanga · for Harvey Barnes
- 77'ASubstitution - Jacob Ramsey · for Joe Willock
- 77'ASubstitution - Yoane Wissa · for William Osula
- 75'HYellow card - Yéremy Pino
- 63'HSubstitution - Darío Osorio · for Dwight McNeil
- 62'HSubstitution - Eddie Nketiah · for Jean-Philippe Mateta
- 58'AGoal - Harvey Barnes · Assist: Amar Dedić
- 47'AGoal - William Osula · Assist: Jacob Murphy
- 46'AYellow card - Fabian Schär
- 36'AYellow card - Nico González
- 4
- Shots on target
- 2
- 17
- Shots
- 10
- 7
- Corners
- 4
- 53
- Possession %
- 47
A decisive result gets the narrow Palace–Newcastle lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonDouble ChanceCrystal Palace or Newcastle@ 1.31
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Palace's home record and Newcastle's away record are both W1-D0-L2, with no draws across those six matches. Nine of their ten combined recent results also produced a winner, supporting the Palace-or-Newcastle selection.
Palace average 2.0 goals scored and 2.7 conceded at home; Newcastle average 1.3 scored and 2.7 conceded away. Those defensive records favour opportunities for a decisive result, although Palace's Thursday European trip adds uncertainty over their energy levels.
At 1.32, the selection needs roughly 76% to break even, against our estimated 77%. Confidence is Medium: the venue splits and recent results support it, but the small samples, narrow price margin and Palace's latest 2-2 draw prevent a stronger rating.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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