- 90'HSubstitution - Michael Svoboda · for Lewis Dunk
- 84'HGoal - Jack Hinshelwood
- 81'ASubstitution - Will Hughes · for Daichi Kamada
- 81'HSubstitution - Jaouen Hadjam · for Olivier Boscagli
- 81'HSubstitution - Malick Yalcouyé · for Yasin Ayari
- 71'HSubstitution - Jack Hinshelwood · for Pascal Groß
- 71'HSubstitution - Georginio Rutter · for Charalampos Kostoulas
- 64'HYellow card - Chema Andrés
- 61'ASubstitution - Jean-Philippe Mateta · for Jörgen Strand Larsen
- 61'ASubstitution - Eddie Nketiah · for Yeremy Pino
- 53'ASubstitution - Jefferson Lerma · for Honest Ahanor
- 51'AYellow card - Daichi Kamada
- 49'HGoal - Charalampos Kostoulas
- 45'ASubstitution - Dwight McNeil · for Quinten Timber
- 29'HYellow card - Pascal Groß
- 10'HGoal - Yasin Ayari · Assist: Charalampos Kostoulas
- 7'HGoal - Diego Gomez · Assist: Olivier Boscagli
- 4'HGoal - Jaydee Canvot · Own goal
- 9
- Shots on target
- 1
- 17
- Shots
- 5
- 8
- Corners
- 5
- 58
- Possession %
- 42
Brighton's current form gives them the edge
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonMatch ResultBrighton to win@ 1.48
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Brighton sit third with 13 points and a +13 goal difference, while Palace are 12th with seven points and -3. Brighton's five successive wins include league victories of 2-0 at Sunderland, 3-0 against Arsenal and 5-0 at Coventry.
Brighton average 2.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded at home in the league, compared with Palace's away averages of 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. Palace provisionally list Henderson, Disasi and Riad among their absences, reinforcing the press's defensive concerns. However, Palace are unbeaten in the last four meetings, and both sides played in Europe three days before this fixture.
Brighton to win at 1.53 implies roughly a 65% chance, and their stronger current results and home performances support a modest edge above that threshold. Confidence is Medium rather than High because the price is above 1.50 and Brighton's provisional attacking absences introduce uncertainty; the strength of their recent league results keeps this above a Low-confidence lean.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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