- 89'HGoal - Vangelis Pavlidis · Assist: Tomás Araújo
- 85'HYellow card - João Palhinha
- 80'HSubstitution - Alessandro Circati · for Alexander Bah
- 77'ASubstitution - Jordan Lotomba · for Colby Donovan
- 69'HYellow card - Alexander Bah
- 68'HSubstitution - Andreas Schjelderup · for Dodi Lukebakio
- 67'HSubstitution - Vangelis Pavlidis · for Jhon Durán
- 64'HSubstitution - Claudio Echeverri · for Heorhii Sudakov
- 64'HSubstitution - Souffian El Karouani · for Samuel Dahl
- 63'AGoal - Camilo Duran · Assist: Haissem Hassan
- 57'ASubstitution - Benjamin Nygren · for Oliver Sorensen
- 57'ASubstitution - Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · for Mika Baur
- 45'ASubstitution - Haissem Hassan · for Kasper Hogh
- 45'ASubstitution - Callum Osmand · for Sebastian Tounekti
- 44'HYellow card - Samuel Dahl
- 36'HGoal - Jhon Durán · Assist: Gianluca Prestianni
- 23'HGoal - Alexander Bah · Assist: Gianluca Prestianni
- 5'HGoal - Jhon Durán · Penalty
- 7
- Shots on target
- 7
- 26
- Shots
- 14
- 8
- Corners
- 6
- 53
- Possession %
- 47
Benfica favoured, with a lean against both teams scoring
Our picks (2)
odds are estimates- High confidenceWonMatch ResultBenfica to win@ 1.20
- Medium confidenceLostBoth Teams To ScoreBoth Teams To Score - No@ 2.00
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Benfica have won four of their last five matches, including 2-0 victories over Vitória SC and AC Milan; Celtic have lost three of five. Benfica also lead the early Europa League standings comparison with three points and a +2 goal difference, against Celtic's zero points and -2, supporting the home-win lean at 1.25.
Benfica have kept three clean sheets in five matches, while four of Celtic's last five finished without both teams scoring. Those patterns support BTTS No at 1.91, although Celtic's goal in their 1-3 European defeat and unpublished line-ups keep that selection at Medium confidence.
The main pick earns High confidence because its 1.25 price implies an 80% chance and both recent form and the early competition standings favour Benfica. The short price limits the value margin, while provisional team news and the small European table sample prevent treating that confidence as certainty.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (269 matches): 2.80 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 56%, both teams scored in 48%, 9.4 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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