- 96'HYellow card - Karim Adeyemi
- 96'HYellow card - Alejandro Balde
- 94'AYellow card - Kylian Mbappé
- 94'ASubstitution - T. Alexander-Arnold · for A. Guler
- 94'ASubstitution - C. Espi · for Y. Diomande
- 92'AYellow card - Dean Huijsen
- 87'AGoal - K. Mbappe · Assist: E. Camavinga
- 86'HSubstitution - Gabriel Jesus · for Raphinha
- 85'HSubstitution - K. Adeyemi · for A. Gordon
- 84'HYellow card - Anthony Gordon
- 80'ASubstitution - E. Camavinga · for B. Silva
- 74'HSubstitution - F. de Jong · for Fermin
- 62'ASubstitution - D. Dumfries · for F. Valverde
- 61'HGoal - Raphinha · Assist: Pedri
- 46'AYellow card - Aurelien Tchouameni
- 41'AGoal - K. Mbappe
- 30'HSubstitution - A. Balde · for X. Espart
- 6
- Shots on target
- 5
- 18
- Shots
- 10
- 6
- Corners
- 6
- 62
- Possession %
- 38
Barcelona or draw is the strongest Clásico lean
Our pick
odds are estimates- High confidenceLostDouble ChanceBarcelona or Draw@ 1.25
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Barcelona lead La Liga with 27 points and a +30 goal difference, while Real Madrid are third with 21 points and +14. Barcelona's four home league wins contrast with Madrid's two wins and two defeats away, supporting Barcelona or Draw at 1.25.
Barcelona average 4.3 goals scored at home, while Madrid average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded away. Madrid are provisionally without Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo, although Barcelona's defensive availability concerns and recent 4-2 defeat at PSG keep an away victory a credible risk.
The estimated 81% probability gives the main pick High confidence, supported independently by the league and venue records and Madrid's attacking absences. It sits near the bottom of that band rather than higher because Madrid have won four successive matches and Barcelona's defensive line-up remains unsettled.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (379 matches): 2.79 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 52%, both teams scored in 57%, 9.6 corners, 4.8 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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