- 89'ASubstitution - Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · for Vincent Sierro
- 76'HSubstitution - Javison Idele · for Davide Zappacosta
- 76'HSubstitution - Lazar Samardzic · for Nicola Zalewski
- 74'ASubstitution - Matija Frigan · for Giovanni Fabbian
- 74'ASubstitution - Nesta Elphege · for El Bilal Toure
- 67'ASubstitution - Christian Ordóñez · for Simone Lontani
- 67'HSubstitution - Kamal Deen Sulemana · for Jonathan Rowe
- 62'HSubstitution - Elif Elmas · for Éderson José dos Santos
- 58'AGoal - Simone Lontani · Assist: Giovanni Fabbian
- 47'AGoal - Davide Zappacosta · Own goal
- 45'ASubstitution - Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye · for Dominik Drobnic
- 41'AGoal - Giovanni Fabbian · Assist: Vincent Sierro
- 7
- Shots on target
- 3
- 20
- Shots
- 6
- 8
- Corners
- 5
- 70
- Possession %
- 30
Blunt Parma attack faces patched-up Atalanta: lean Parma under 1.5 goals
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceLostTeam GoalsParma Under 1.5 Goals@ 1.30Suggested stake: 2 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Parma arrive 18th on 5 points with a -10 goal difference and have lost all four league away games. They score 0.5 per game on the road and have failed to score in 5 of 9 league matches. Across their last six away games they average 0.3 goals and 2.5 shots on target, and their only 2+ goal output in ten games was a home 2-1 over Genoa.
Atalanta are 12th but strong at home (W3-D1-L1, 2.2 scored per game), and the market rates them clear favourites. They are winless in four, though, and missing Scamacca, Raspadori, Kessie, Bellanova, Hien, Kossounou and Kolasinac, with youngster Obric expected in defence. Krstovic (6 goals) should lead the line, so Atalanta should carry the attacking burden while Parma sit deep.
This is Medium rather than High because Atalanta's back line is badly depleted and has conceded in nine of their last ten games. Line-ups are not yet confirmed either. It is not lower because Parma's away scoring is weak across this season and last, and both our model and the sharp market put this outcome well above evens.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (382 matches): 2.67 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 51%, both teams scored in 48%, 9.0 corners, 3.8 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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