- 86'ASubstitution - Charly Alcaraz · for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
- 80'HSubstitution - Max Dowman · for Eberechi Eze
- 80'HSubstitution - Martín Zubimendi · for Declan Rice
- 79'AYellow card - David William Moyes
- 79'AYellow card - James Tarkowski
- 74'ASubstitution - Hayden Hackney · for Vitaliy Mykolenko
- 72'ASubstitution - Tyler Dibling · for Brennan Johnson
- 68'HGoal - Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães · Assist: Ben White
- 68'HSubstitution - Riccardo Calafiori · for Myles Lewis-Skelly
- 68'HSubstitution - Kai Havertz · for Viktor Gyökeres
- 68'HSubstitution - Bruno Guimarães · for Mikel Merino
- 66'AYellow card - James Garner
- 64'HYellow card - Mikel Arteta Amatriain
- 58'HYellow card - Myles Lewis-Skelly
- 47'AYellow card - Vitaliy Mykolenko
- 7'HGoal - Ezri Konsa · Assist: Viktor Gyökeres
- 4
- Shots on target
- 3
- 20
- Shots
- 8
- 12
- Corners
- 3
- 58
- Possession %
- 42
Under 3.5 goals preferred at Arsenal
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.40
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Arsenal have scored 2.3 and conceded 0.7 goals per home league game, while Everton's away averages are 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Those rates favour a manageable total, although Arsenal's three home wins give them the stronger result case.
All five supplied head-to-head meetings finished below four goals, as did four of each team's last five matches across all competitions. Under 3.5 goals at 1.36 requires approximately 73.5% to break even, below the estimated 77% chance.
Medium confidence reflects the scoring rates and recent totals, with Saka doubtful and Tzolis unavailable also potentially limiting Arsenal's attacking options. Confidence stops short of High because Saliba is listed out, line-ups remain unconfirmed and Arsenal's latest match ended 2-2.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (371 matches): 2.75 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 56%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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