- 90'AYellow card - Carlos Augusto
- 89'HSubstitution - Omari Hutchinson · for Diego Moreira
- 89'HSubstitution - Filippo Terracciano · for Gonçalo Ramos
- 83'HSubstitution - Davide Bartesaghi · for Sankhoun Diawara
- 82'HSubstitution - Alphadjo Cissè · for Christian Pulisic
- 82'HSubstitution - Ardon Jashari · for Yunus Musah
- 82'ASubstitution - Ange-Yoan Bonny · for Yann Bisseck
- 82'ASubstitution - Pio Esposito · for Nicolò Barella
- 81'ASubstitution - Federico Dimarco · for Alessandro Bastoni
- 72'ASubstitution - Henrikh Mkhitaryan · for Andy Diouf
- 72'ASubstitution - Piotr Zieliński · for Hakan Çalhanoğlu
- 52'HYellow card - Diego Moreira
- 49'HYellow card - Koni De Winter
- 43'HGoal - Diego Moreira
- 22'AGoal - Alessandro Bastoni
- 10'HGoal - Adrien Rabiot · Assist: Diego Moreira
- 4'HGoal - Christian Pulisic · Assist: Diego Moreira
- 4
- Shots on target
- 8
- 7
- Shots
- 18
- 3
- Corners
- 11
- 43
- Possession %
- 57
Milan v Inter: derby history and Lautaro's absence point to a contained game
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceLostTotal GoalsUnder 3.5 Goals@ 1.44
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Inter arrive top of Serie A with 25 points from nine games and a +15 goal difference, perfect at home and unbeaten away (W3 D1). Fifth-placed Milan have 18 points, and the market rates Inter as the stronger side. Yet Milan are unbeaten in the last five derbies: two 1-1 draws, two 1-0 wins and a 3-0 win.
Those five derbies were all tight on goals, with none going beyond three and two settled by a single goal. Inter are reported to be without captain Lautaro Martinez (hamstring), plus Pavard, Jones and Luis Henrique, with Calhanoglu possibly rested. That takes a lot of their attacking threat out of the fixture. Milan are missing Loftus-Cheek, Saelemaekers, Chukwueze and Gabbia, while Rabiot, Gila and Moreira are expected back.
The main pick is Medium because derby history and Inter's attacking absences both lean towards a contained game. It is not High because Milan's recent matches have been open (2-4 v Bologna, 0-3 at Bournemouth, 3-2 v Atalanta). A thin Milan defence with Tomori doubtful could also let the game run away. It is not Low because the head-to-head pattern is consistent and the key absence on Inter's side directly reduces the goal threat.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (382 matches): 2.67 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 51%, both teams scored in 48%, 9.0 corners, 3.8 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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